Course Details

This course is appropriate for a wide range of professionals but not limited to:

• Senior Cost Engineers and Estimators
• Project Managers and Program Managers responsible for large capital expenditures
• Risk Management Professionals and Analysts
• Project Control Managers and Directors
• Financial Analysts and Investment Decision Makers
• Senior executives involved in portfolio and investment governance

• Expert-led sessions with dynamic visual aids
• Comprehensive course manual to support practical application and reinforcement
• Interactive discussions addressing participants’ real-world projects and challenges
• Insightful case studies and proven best practices to enhance learning

By the end of this course, participants should be able to:

• Select and apply advanced estimating techniques (e.g., parametric modeling, bottom-up validation) for high-complexity projects.
• Integrate earned value management (EVM) with critical path method (CPM) scheduling to forecast final project cost and duration (EAC and ETC).
• Identify, analyze, and prioritize project cost and schedule risks using qualitative risk assessment methods.
• Conduct comprehensive quantitative risk analysis, including Monte Carlo simulation, to establish realistic budget and schedule contingency reserves.
• Apply decision analysis tools (e.g., Decision Trees, Expected Monetary Value) to optimize strategic choices under conditions of uncertainty.
• Implement risk response planning, mitigation strategies, and establish robust cost and risk management governance structures.

DAY 1

Advanced Estimating Methodologies and Cost Modeling

• Welcome and introduction
• Pre-test
• Review of Foundational Cost Engineering Principles and AACE Standards
• Advanced Estimating Techniques: Bottom-up validation, parametric modeling, and machine learning applications in cost estimation.
• Contingency Determination: Differentiating between known-unknowns (contingency) and unknown-unknowns (management reserve).
• Cost Breakdown Structures (CBS) and Work Breakdown Structures (WBS): Advanced techniques for alignment and integration.
• Benchmarking and Data Normalization: Utilizing industry data and adjusting for inflation, currency, and location factors.

DAY 2

Strategic Cost Control, Performance, and Value Engineering

• Mastering Earned Value Management (EVM): Advanced EVM metrics (TCPI, SPI/CPI correlation, variance analysis).
• Integrating Cost and Schedule: Combining EVM data with Critical Path Method (CPM) for integrated performance reporting.
• Forecasting Final Outcomes: Advanced techniques for Estimate At Completion (EAC) calculation and scenario modeling.
• Value Engineering (VE) Fundamentals: Structured methodology for function analysis, creativity workshops, and cost-benefit analysis.
• Cost Optimization and Reduction Strategies: Zero-based budgeting and targeted cost reductions without compromising scope.

DAY 3

Project Risk Management and Qualitative Analysis

• Introduction to Risk Governance: Establishing the risk management plan, roles, and responsibilities.
• Risk Identification Tools: Advanced techniques including Prompt Lists, SWOT analysis, and Delphi technique.
• Qualitative Risk Analysis: Detailed risk probability and impact assessment (P&I) and risk matrix applications.
• Prioritization Techniques: Utilizing the Risk Register to prioritize risks based on exposure (Risk Score).
• Developing Effective Risk Statements: Ensuring clear, measurable, and contextualized risk descriptions.

DAY 4

Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA)

• Introduction to QRA: When and how to apply quantitative methods to cost and schedule.
• Modeling Uncertainty: Defining probability distributions (Triangular, BetaPERT, Uniform) for cost and duration elements.
• Monte Carlo Simulation for Cost: Performing simulations to generate a probabilistic range of project costs.
• Schedule Risk Analysis: Integrating cost risk with schedule uncertainty to determine P-level completion dates.
• Tornado and Sensitivity Analysis: Identifying key cost drivers and risks with the highest impact on the project outcome.
• Determining Contingency Reserves: Using simulation results to scientifically calculate appropriate cost and schedule reserves.

DAY 5

Decision Analysis, Optimization, and Future Trends

• Decision Analysis Tools: Applying Decision Trees and Expected Monetary Value (EMV) to evaluate competing strategic options (e.g., make vs. buy, technology selection).
• Risk Response Planning: Detailed development of mitigation, avoidance, transfer, and acceptance strategies.
• Residual and Secondary Risk Management: Planning for risks that remain after response actions are taken.
• Risk Monitoring and Control: Techniques for risk re-assessment, risk audits, and status reporting.
• Emerging Trends: Digital Cost Engineering, utilizing AI/ML in risk modeling, and the impact of sustainability/ESG on cost and risk.
• Post-test
• Certificate ceremony