Course Details

This course is appropriate for a wide range of professionals but not limited to:

• Project Managers and Project Directors in Oil & Gas
• Petroleum Engineers and Reservoir Engineers
• Project Economists and Financial Analysts in Energy
• Investment and Business Development Managers
• Government Officials involved in regulating petroleum projects

• Expert-led sessions with dynamic visual aids
• Comprehensive course manual to support practical application and reinforcement
• Interactive discussions addressing participants’ real-world projects and challenges
• Insightful case studies and proven best practices to enhance learning

By the end of this course, participants should be able to:

• Master advanced DCF analysis and valuation metrics specific to oil and gas projects.
• Analyze the impact of various Fiscal Regimes (Concession, PSA, Service Contracts) on project economics.
• Conduct comprehensive Probabilistic Risk Analysis on reserves, production, and cost profiles.
• Accurately incorporate cost of capital, inflation, and oil price volatility into financial models.
• Apply Decision Tree Analysis to assess exploration and development options.
• Present risk-adjusted economic evaluations for final investment decision (FID).

DAY 1

Petroleum Project Economics Fundamentals

• Welcome and introduction
• Pre-test
• The unique economic environment of Petroleum Projects (high risk, long life cycle)
• Defining project cash flows: CAPEX, OPEX, Royalty, Tax, and working capital
• Key economic metrics: NPV, IRR, PI, and their application in E&P
• Calculating the discount rate and dealing with inflation in long-term models
• Reserves classification and its impact on valuation

DAY 2

Fiscal Regimes and Valuation Modeling

• In-depth analysis of Fiscal Regimes: Concessionary, Production Sharing Agreements (PSA), and Service Contracts
• Modeling the impact of royalties, production taxes, and corporate income tax
• Building comprehensive, Stochastic Financial Models for oil and gas projects
• Calculating Unit Technical Cost (UTC) and economic breakeven points
• Sensitivity analysis on key drivers (oil price, reserve size, operating cost)

DAY 3

Probabilistic Risk Analysis (QRA) for Petroleum

• Introduction to Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) for production and reserves
• Defining uncertainty distributions for key variables (reserves, initial rate, decline curve)
• Using Monte Carlo Simulation for probabilistic economic evaluation
• Interpreting QRA results: P10, P50, and P90 economic outcomes
• Analyzing the impact of correlation between price and other variables

DAY 4

Decision-Making Under Uncertainty and Volatility

• Applying Decision Tree Analysis to assess exploration and phased development options
• Economic evaluation of project staging and abandonment options (Real Options)
• Modeling and managing the risk of oil and gas Price Volatility
• Analyzing the economic impact of regulatory and geopolitical risks
• Strategies for risk mitigation and hedging in petroleum finance

DAY 5

Project Closeout and Investment Strategy

• Best practices for economic due diligence and assurance reviews
• Developing the risk-adjusted final investment decision (FID) recommendation
• Case studies in major petroleum project approvals and post-mortem analysis
• Summary of integrated risk-economic approach
• Post-test
• Certificate ceremony